Artificial intelligence is simultaneously transforming the production function of human capital in schools and the return to skills in the labor market. We develop a theoretical model to analyze the potential for misallocation when these two forces are considered in isolation. We study an educational planner who observes AI's immediate productivity benefits in teaching specific skills but fails to fully internalize the technology's future wage-suppressing effects on those same skills. Motivated by a pre-registered pilot study suggesting a positive correlation between a skill's "teachability" by AI and its vulnerability to automation, we show that this information friction leads to a systematic skill mismatch. The planner over-invests in skills destined for obsolescence, a distortion that increases monotonically with AI prevalence. Extensions demonstrate that this mismatch is exacerbated by the neglect of unpriced non-cognitive skills and by the endogenous over-adoption of educational technology. Our findings caution that policies promoting AI in education, if not paired with forward-looking labor market signals, may paradoxically undermine students' long-term human capital, such as by crowding out skills like persistence that are forged through intellectual struggle.

The rapid ascent of Foundation Models (FMs), enabled by the Transformer architecture, drives the current AI ecosystem. Characterized by large-scale training and downstream adaptability, FMs (as GPT family) have achieved massive public adoption, fueling a turbulent market shaped by platform economics and intense investment. Assessing the vulnerability of this fast-evolving industry is critical yet challenging due to data limitations. This paper proposes a synthetic AI Vulnerability Index (AIVI) focusing on the upstream value chain for FM production, prioritizing publicly available data. We model FM output as a function of five inputs: Compute, Data, Talent, Capital, and Energy, hypothesizing that supply vulnerability in any input threatens the industry. Key vulnerabilities include compute concentration, data scarcity and legal risks, talent bottlenecks, capital intensity and strategic dependencies, as well as escalating energy demands. Acknowledging imperfect input substitutability, we propose a weighted geometrical average of aggregate subindexes, normalized using theoretical or empirical benchmarks. Despite limitations and room for improvement, this preliminary index aims to quantify systemic risks in AI's core production engine, and implicitly shed a light on the risks for downstream value chain.

This paper investigates the concept of Labour as an expression of `timenergy' - a fusion of time and energy - and its entanglement within the system of Capital. We define Labour as the commodified, quantifiable expansion of timenergy, in contrast to Capital, which is capable of accumulation and abstraction. We explore Labour's historical evolution, its coercive and alienating nature, and its transformation through automation and artificial intelligence. Using a game-theoretic, agent-based simulation, we model interactions between Capital and Labour in production processes governed by Cobb-Douglas functions. Our results show that despite theoretical symmetry, learning agents disproportionately gravitate toward capital-intensive processes, revealing Capital's superior organizational influence due to its accumulative capacity. We argue that Capital functions as an artificially alive system animated by the living Labour it consumes, and question whether life can sustain itself without the infrastructures of Capital in a future of increasing automation. This study offers both a critique of and a framework for understanding Labour's subjugation within the Capital system.

We study long-run progress in artificial intelligence in a quantitative way. Many measures, including traditional ones such as patents and publications, machine learning benchmarks, and a new Aggregate State of the Art in ML (or ASOTA) Index we have constructed from these, show exponential growth at roughly constant rates over long periods. Production of patents and publications doubles every ten years, by contrast with the growth of computing resources driven by Moore's Law, roughly a doubling every two years. We argue that the input of AI researchers is also crucial and its contribution can be objectively estimated. Consequently, we give a simple argument that explains the 5:1 relation between these two rates. We then discuss the application of this argument to different output measures and compare our analyses with predictions based on machine learning scaling laws proposed in existing literature. Our quantitative framework facilitates understanding, predicting, and modulating the development of these important technologies.

The global economy relies on the flow of goods over supply chain networks, with nodes as firms and edges as transactions between firms. While we may observe these external transactions, they are governed by unseen production functions, which determine how firms internally transform the input products they receive into output products that they sell. In this setting, it can be extremely valuable to infer these production functions, to better understand and improve supply chains, and to forecast future transactions more accurately. However, existing graph neural networks (GNNs) cannot capture these hidden relationships between nodes' inputs and outputs. Here, we introduce a new class of models for this setting, by combining temporal GNNs with a novel inventory module, which learns production functions via attention weights and a special loss function. We evaluate our models extensively on real supply chains data, along with data generated from our new open-source simulator, SupplySim. Our models successfully infer production functions, with a 6-50% improvement over baselines, and forecast future transactions on real and synthetic data, outperforming baselines by 11-62%.

We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We assume that human work can be decomposed into atomistic tasks that differ in their complexity. Advances in technology make ever more complex tasks amenable to automation. The effects on wages depend on a race between automation and capital accumulation. If the distribution of task complexity exhibits a sufficiently thick infinite tail, then there is always enough work for humans, and wages may rise forever. By contrast, if the complexity of tasks that humans can perform is bounded and full automation is reached, then wages collapse. But declines may occur even before if large-scale automation outpaces capital accumulation and makes labor too abundant. Automating productivity growth may lead to broad-based gains in the returns to all factors. By contrast, bottlenecks to growth from irreproducible scarce factors may exacerbate the decline in wages.

Quantifying the value of data within a machine learning workflow can play a pivotal role in making more strategic decisions in machine learning initiatives. The existing Shapley value based frameworks for data valuation in machine learning are computationally expensive as they require considerable amount of repeated training of the model to obtain the Shapley value. In this paper, we introduce an efficient data valuation framework EcoVal, to estimate the value of data for machine learning models in a fast and practical manner. Instead of directly working with individual data sample, we determine the value of a cluster of similar data points. This value is further propagated amongst all the member cluster points. We show that the overall data value can be determined by estimating the intrinsic and extrinsic value of each data. This is enabled by formulating the performance of a model as a \textit{production function}, a concept which is popularly used to estimate the amount of output based on factors like labor and capital in a traditional free economic market. We provide a formal proof of our valuation technique and elucidate the principles and mechanisms that enable its accelerated performance. We demonstrate the real-world applicability of our method by showcasing its effectiveness for both in-distribution and out-of-sample data. This work addresses one of the core challenges of efficient data valuation at scale in machine learning models.

We have used agent-based modeling as our numerical method to artificially simulate a dynamic real economy where agents are rational maximizers of an objective function of Cobb-Douglas type. The economy is characterised by heterogeneous agents, acting out of local or imperfect information, monopolistic competition, perfect product differentiation, allowance for increasing returns to scale technology and trade in disequilibrium. An algorithm for economic activity in each period is devised and a general purpose open source agent-based model is developed which allows for counterfactual inquiries, testing out treatments, analysing causality of various economic processes, outcomes and studying emergent properties. 10,000 simulations, with 10 firms and 80 consumers are run with varying parameters and the results show that from only a few initial conditions the economy reaches equilibrium while in most of the other cases it remains in perpetual disequilibrium. It also shows that from a few initial conditions the economy reaches a disaster where all the consumer wealth falls to zero or only a single producer remains. Furthermore, from some initial conditions, an ideal economy with high wage rate, high consumer utility and no unemployment is also reached. It was also observed that starting from an equal endowment of wealth in consumers and in producers, inequality emerged in the economy. In majority of the cases most of the firms(6-7) shut down because they were not profitable enough and only a few firms remained. Our results highlight that all these varying outcomes are possible for a decentralized market economy with rational optimizing agents.

What will likely be the effect of the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) on the skill premium? To address this question, we develop a nested constant elasticity of substitution production function that distinguishes between industrial robots and AI. Industrial robots predominantly substitute for low-skill workers, whereas AI mainly helps to perform the tasks of high-skill workers. We show that AI reduces the skill premium as long as it is more substitutable for high-skill workers than low-skill workers are for high-skill workers.

Borrowing ideas from {\em Production functions} in micro-economics, in this paper we introduce a framework to systematically evaluate the performance and cost trade-offs between machine-translated and manually-created labelled data for task-specific fine-tuning of massively multilingual language models. We illustrate the effectiveness of our framework through a case-study on the TyDIQA-GoldP dataset. One of the interesting conclusions of the study is that if the cost of machine translation is greater than zero, the optimal performance at least cost is always achieved with at least some or only manually-created data. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt towards extending the concept of production functions to study data collection strategies for training multilingual models, and can serve as a valuable tool for other similar cost vs data trade-offs in NLP.